May 23, 2013
Why Alain Vigneault Deserved to be Fired

by Scott Taylor

Yesterday’s announcement of the firing of Canuck coach Alain Vigneault was certainly inevitable, though, in the minds of many, not deserved. Canuck President and General Manager Mike Gillis was sacrificing his coach to save himself many said. It is Gillis, who deserves the scrutiny many will say. And not Vigneault, the media friendly long-term coach, who has easily amassed the best coaching record in franchise history.

And certainly Gillis’ body of work requires plenty of critical appraisal at this point. And that will most certainly come. If it already hasn’t. It was obvious from Gillis’ demeanour yesterday that he is clearly feeling the heat.

But the time for a coaching change in Vancouver had long passed. Despite Vigneault’s gaudy record as Canuck boss, his day was done. Witness the following.

Complacent Canucks

Since the Stanley Cup loss to Boston two years ago, the number of sixty minute efforts expended by his squad could be counted on one hand. The President’s Trophy and divisional titles in that span were buoyed by a weak schedule and strong goaltending. We won’t go so far to say his team had tuned him out, but they had become a mostly complacent crew, fully exposed in their consecutive first round playoff exits to lower seeded opponents.

Inconsistent Player Development

During his time here, Vigneault displayed an inability to consistently nurture young talent. In the salary cap constrained world, getting contributions from young players with small salaries is paramount.

To his credit, Vigneault developed the likes of Ryan Kesler, Jannik Hansen and Chris Tanev. But more strikingly, players like Cody Hodgson and Zack Kassian could never find their way out of his doghouse. The rift with Hodgson, in fact, began when Coach Vigneault accused the rookie of faking what turned out to be a serious back injury.

Clearly, young players who were committed to defense first (like Tanev and Hansen) would be in the good books of Vigneault, while those with creative offensive instincts (Hodgson and Kassian) would be forever shackled. At yesterday’s press conference, Gillis acknowledged the importance of getting contributions from younger players going forward, a passive indictment of Vigneault’s record in that regard.

Repeated Playoff Failures

Many will remember Coach Vigneault as the man who coached the Canucks to within a game of the Stanley Cup. History will show, however, that his teams notoriously under achieved in the playoffs.

His Canuck teams played in twelve playoff series (with home ice advantage in ten of them), winning six times. More recently, they have lost ten of their last 11 playoff games despite being the favourite. And most tellingly, their playoff elimination game record during his seven years at the helm featured only eight wins in 21 attempts - a glaring signal that his team could not play their best when it mattered most.

Hired to be Fired

Finally, and most importantly, coaching changes work. The history of sport does not feature stories of immeasurable patience in your coaching staff being rewarded with championships. It simply does not happen. In fact, the opposite is typically true. Of the last ten Stanley Cup champions, the average tenure of the head coach has been two seasons. Three times in that period, the winner has featured a coach in his first season with the club.

So after seven seasons, Coach Vigneault winds up where all coaches eventually do. He had tremendous opportunity here, one that was left mostly unfulfilled. And on that basis, while amassing the best record in franchise history, will not be remembered as the greatest Canuck coach ever. By no means is he solely responsible for this organizational failure, but he is certainly the most easily accountable at this moment in time.

April 3, 2013
Mike Gillis and Going “All In”

After acquiring centre Derek Roy yesterday, Canucks’ Assistant General Manager, Laurence Gilman, was quoted as saying that his team was “fertile” and would be going “all in” at this trade deadline. Specifically, he expected one or two more deals to get done.

One day later, the trade deadline has expired and nothing more has happened. The typical excuses will be forthcoming. “It was a sellers’ market”. “We don’t want to mortgage our future”. “We like our team as is”. “Ryan Kesler is coming back”. “Derek Roy is a versatile player”.

And some or all of them may apply. But we should realize that the words of the Canucks’ upper management have not been in sync with their actions for quite some time.

You will recall last season’s trade deadline. The Canucks, defending Western Conference champs, traded an emerging player, Cody Hodgson, for a player that was, and remains, an enigmatic prospect - Zack Kassian. This was hardly the action of a team that was trying to load up for a Stanley Cup run.

Further, when it became clear that Cory Schneider was an elite NHL goalie, the team opted to keep him and attempt to move Roberto Luongo. Seemingly, another decision that did not fit well with a team that was aiming to win during their window of opportunity. Seemingly, Schneider would be more valuable on the trade front than the aging Luongo and his gaudy salary.

And now, another deadline has passed with the only acquisition being Derek Roy. Roy will be a valuable component on a team that has been without a 2nd and 3rd line centre all season. He is a play-making pivot on a team that is in dire need of such. But it is hard to imagine that he will be enough to elevate the level of play to Stanley Cup contender.

Mike Gillis’ handling of the Luongo matter is fodder for another blog piece. But it appears that Gillis’ arrogance has gotten in the way of getting a deal done.

With one year to trade his prized keeper, Gillis has not been able to pull the trigger, seemingly unaware that a player’s market value is simply represented by whatever the highest bidder is prepared to pay.

You don’t need to look too far to see what other teams have done in similar circumstances. You will recall Chris Pronger’s speedy exit from Edmonton. Or Jaroslav Halak’s quick departure from Montreal when it became clear he and Carey Price similarly couldn’t occupy the same net.

By continuing to defer on the matter, Gillis is speculating enormously and, in the end, doing his franchise a disservice. But the conclusion is pretty elementary.

The Aquilinis, despite claims to the contrary, aren’t really all that concerned about a Stanley Cup win. Ongoing competitive play and a handful of playoff dates year-after-year is fine.

And from a bottom line perspective, it likely is. But the next time you hear someone from the Canuck brass declare that they are “all in”, you must know they are only bluffing.

February 27, 2013
For the Canucks, Same Old Stories

Ryan Kesler is hurt.  Again.  Zack Kassian is back in the doghouse.  And, the infinitely spinning goalie carousel does just that.

Kesler, whose performance had faded after an initial promising return from his latest round of injury woes, has broken a bone in his foot.  The injury occurred last week in Dallas, explaining the former all-star center’s struggles in the past few games.

What has to be quite disturbing to all is that Kesler has morphed into the injury riddled Sami Salo.  It is not like he’s had a chronic problem ailing him the last couple of seasons, instead suffering all manner of seemingly unrelated injuries - hips, wrist, shoulder and now foot.  

It is becoming clear that the feisty straw that stirs the drink may never appear in the line-up consistently enough to have the required impact.  It is impossible to imagine this Canuck team maintaining any kind of extended success without a healthy Kesler.

Earlier this season, with both Kesler and David Booth out of the line-up, Zack Kassian saw some first line minutes and played well enough to deserve more of them.  But instead, he has found himself in Alain Vigneault’s doghouse once again. Things bottomed out last night as the robust winger saw only six minutes of ice time.

Contrast that to Buffalo’s treatment of Cody Hodgson, the player controversially dealt in exchange for Kassian last season. This season, Hodgson has played over 20 minutes most nights and never less than 17 in a single game.

It is really hard to tell exactly what the plan is for Kassian, notably a year younger than the man he will be forever compared to.  But he certainly looked comfortable and effective playing top line minutes earlier this season, bringing his unique combination of skill and sandpaper as advertised.

Now he is back to patrolling the fourth line - a lose/lose proposition if there ever was one.  Is it any coincidence that the Canucks’ poorest play this season has corresponded with the times when Kassian’s ice-time has been reduced? If there is an upside to the Kesler injury, it would be the chance for Kassian to get more minutes again.

Based on Cory Schneider’s post game comments last night, he is clearly bristling from something.  Whether he’s unhappy with his recent inconsistent play or the ongoing melodrama of who’s the number one keeper in this market is not clear.  But it’s not an optimal situation obviously.

We’ve been adamant, ever since it appeared that this market couldn’t accommodate both of these elite keepers, that Luongo should be moved sooner rather than later.

We reiterate that 33 year-old netminders don’t appreciate.  The Canucks have gambled on this matter, waiting until situations force the hands of other teams into desperate positions.  The opposite, unfortunately, is now true.

Chicago seemingly can’t lose with their current goaltending tandem.  The Leafs are off to their best start in a decade.  The cash strapped Florida Panthers have wisely opted to play their prized prospect between the pipes.  And the Oilers are happy to ride Devan Dubnyk, their goalie of the future who is finally delivering consistently.

So where there was once a number of potential suitors for Luongo, it’s hard to find more than one now, the perpetually goaltending challenged Flyers being the only logical destination.

As the injuries mount and the Canucks struggle, the luxury of two elite starting goaltenders is becoming stupidly extravagant.  Worse yet, the Canucks may no longer be bargaining from a position of strength.

Further, the commitment to the development of the Canucks’ two cornerstone players of the future, Kassian and Schneider, ought to be consistent. Kassian seems to possess a demeanour and skill set that should be of value each and every night. And Schneider, as the proclaimed number one goalie during the off-season, should get the same chance his predecessor did to get his game on track.

One thing is for sure, should the Canucks continue to struggle in the coming weeks, the pressure on Mike Gillis may finally reach a tipping point, forcing the organizational flip-flopping to end.

January 22, 2013
Zack Kassian Making a Good Second Impression

In last season’s Canuck debut, noted young power forward Zack Kassian gave you glimpses of what he might become. Some, of course, we’re positive – the size and speed, the crazy wide-eyed gap tooth grin that every enforcer should have. But the parts of his world that allowed Buffalo to let him go also came to light. He seemed prone to inconsistency, trailing off quite easily from what he needed to do.

His fall session with the farm club Chicago Wolves confirmed the enigma – decent goal production, a whack of PIM, discipline from the league and benching from his coach.

But after two games to start the season, Kassian has been the most pleasant surprise, perhaps the only one. He’s finished checks, generated scoring chances, popped a huge goal and most importantly challenged Oiler behemoth Ben Eager, who has been terrorizing the Canucks for years. Their third period tilt, which was at Kassian’s instigation, and came at a crucial time in the game – mere seconds after the home team had surrendered a two goal lead.

 It is this exact level of intimidation that this team has spent an eternity searching for. That it comes from a young man with so much other potential, it is finally clear what caused the Canucks to part ways with Cody Hodgson. More, please.

January 8, 2013
For Canucks, Many Questions

Despite their two consecutive President’s Trophies and a lengthy delayed start to the season that should be of great benefit to some key banged up players, the Vancouver Canucks start the season with more questions than many teams. So with the lockout finally over, we’re back to providing you with answers.

When will Ryan Kesler return?

With the Canucks’ second line centre duties falling to the likes of noted plumber Maxim Lapierre in Kesler’s absence, this is rightly question number one.

Given his early return from injury last season, Kesler has been adamant that he will only return when 100%. When that might be is anyone’s guess however.

Recent comments from Kesler’s agent implied that he is months away - though that response came during the lockout when there was every reason to overstate his client’s plight to maintain his injured status (and thus continue on the payroll) throughout the lockout.

At any rate, there has been a consistent divergence of opinion between Kesler’s camp and the Canucks about his return date so you’ll have to wait patiently. But really the question ought to be…

Will Ryan Kesler ever be the same?

Let’s not forget that Kesler, plagued by chronic injuries, finished the last two post-seasons as a mere shadow of the player that dominated for much of the 2010-11 regular season and playoff.

Make no mistake, Kesler’s brilliant two-way play is predicated on his speed, physical robustness and devastating shot. It’s quite reasonable to assume that the toll of these repeated injuries will begin to surface whenever he does make a return to the ice.

Flatly stated, we’re betting that Kesler will settle into a decent two-way checking role, scoring 50 points per season for the remainder of his career. Not bad, but for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, it won’t be enough.

What to do with Bobby Lou?

Believe it or not, some are thinking that retaining Luongo for this season to serve in tandem with Cory Schneider might be a good idea. In an ideal world, faced with a sprint-to-the-finish shortened season (and no salary cap), this might be a nice luxury to have. But when you’re faced with the prospect of opening your season with no number two (nor number three, really) centre, Luongo must be sold to the highest acceptable bidder as soon as possible.

As a 33 year-old former number one goalie, how can his market value possibly rise when holding Cory Schneider’s jockstrap? If Roberto starts the season here, we will be surprised and disappointed.

Can a contribution be expected from young players this season?

Seemingly, there are a number of young players (Zack Kassian, Jordan Schroeder, Chris Tanev, Kevin Connauton) that will be given a chance to make the roster, but faced with little or no exhibition play and a shortened season, there’s little margin of error for experimenting with unproven talent - something coach Alain Vigneault has been typically wary of anyway.

In his season to date with the AHL Chicago Wolves, Kassian has proven to be just as enigmatic as before. He’s put up some decent offensive numbers (20 points in 28 games), led his team in penalty minutes, been suspended by the league and benched by his coach. For those keeping score at home, Cody Hodgson, who would have finally been satiated in Kesler’s absence, scored 19 points in 19 AHL games before fracturing his wrist.

Schroeder should get a look at centre ice with Kesler out unless a centre comes back in return for Luongo. It’s hard to get excited about his chances though with the more experienced Andrew Ebbett providing the exact same skill set.

The cool headed Tanev will likely get plenty of big minutes this year while Connauton, still in need of honing his defensive play, will not.

In case you are wondering, 2011 first round pick Nicklas Jensen is staying in Sweden. It is possible that the Canucks (now into the 5th year of the Mike Gillis era) will not ice a single Gillis draft pick this season, leaving Cody Hodgson (and the forgettable Yann Sauve) as the only Gillis picks to play at the NHL level.

Can breakout seasons be expected from Jannik Hansen, David Booth or Mason Raymond?

With no young help on the way and with the Sedins aging and Kesler injured, it is imperative that these three players must collectively improve. 

You will remember that coming out of the last NHL lockout, there were improvements to the game to reduce clutching and grabbing thereby increasing scoring and entertainment value. When the game resumed, the pick-up was noticeable. This time around, the lockout was consumed with carving up league revenue, not a second was spent on how to improve the game.

We’re not sure that bodes well for these types of players (Hansen, Booth and Raymond), who all must improve their contributions if this team expects to manufacture offense on the second and third lines.

By the end of last season, as the hooking and holding seemed to be working its way back into the game, the output of this trio of speedy wingers had plummeted. In 15 combined playoff games, they managed a collective one goal and two assists. Of the three, we like Hansen’s chances the best - his progress has been steady and his determination ever present.  Booth, on the other hand, will likely be earning himself a compliance buy-out before too long.

Welcome back!  Enjoy the Canucks’ return to action.  Or your boycott.  Whatever.  We’ll still be here.

April 24, 2012
Luongo Will Go, Kesler is Hurt, Gillis Slams Hodgson and Backs Vigneault

Today’s events in Canuckville were by far the most entertaining of the season.

Roberto Luongo, taking one for the team again, will waive his no-trade clause.  He’ll also be happy to stay, whatever is best for the team.  Geez, with this display of character, maybe we should keep him.

Ryan Kesler, it was revealed, is suffering from a shoulder injury as well as chronic hip pain.  This explains a lot.  But, we’ve seen this before at season’s end.  Hopefully, this time around he will take the necessary time to completely heal.

The worse the Cody Hodgson for Zack Kassian trade looks, the more Mike Gillis throws young Hodgson under the bus.  Evidently, during his three years here, Cody and his camp demanded more of Mike Gillis’ time than all other players combined.  And further, according to Gillis, Hodgson received preferential ice-time this season to increase his trade value.  But really, what does that have to do with evaluating the move that was made?  At any rate, doesn’t Gillis have to answer for misjudging the player’s character so badly?  It was his draft pick after all.

And further revelations from today indicated that Mike Gillis has the back of his coach, Alain Vigneault.  But clearly, the fate of both will be in the hands of ownership in the coming weeks with possible contract extensions in the offing.

Despite the late season transition of his team to a much lower scoring unit, Gillis insists that playing an uptempo, offensive style is still what he believes in.  But does the NHL?  Take a look around, all the best offensive teams (save Philadelphia) are out (Vancouver, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Chicago) or facing elimination (Boston, Ottawa).

In short, Gillis didn’t accept much culpability for what happened this season, making excuses where possible and supporting his team and staff.

April 23, 2012
Canucks versus Kings - What Went Wrong?

When you’re the defending Western Conference champion and repeat President’s Trophy winner and you lose to the eighth seed in five games in the first round, you’ve got plenty of explaining to do.  And in a market that loves to make mountains out of molehills, we’ve got an extended summer to pick apart this Canuck corpse.

There will be the obvious excuses like the Duncan Keith elbow late in the regular season that forced Daniel Sedin to the sidelines for the first three games of the playoffs.  Though really, this is an adversity an elite team should be able to overcome.  And in the end, it’s the first significant injury to a front line player in many a post season for a franchise that has been remarkably fortunate in that regard.

And what about the Sedins?  To win, you need your best players to be your best players or so the adage goes.  Except the Sedins were the Canucks’ best players in this series, looking more inspired than they ever have, seemingly aware that the rest of the team had checked out.

The magnet for most criticism in this market usually falls on the combustible Roberto Luongo.  But this time around, he was the team’s best player in game 1 before getting relieved by Cory Schneider after a game 2 performance where he was sold out by his teammates, busy practicing their fire drill.  So even Bobby Blue gets a free pass this time around though it may not be enough to save him his job in this market.

And, of course, there will be mention of the dreaded hangover from last season.  But really, we’re not buying that.  It’s not like the Canucks went pedal to the metal during the regular season.  In fact, despite their President’s Trophy win, there were not many 60 minute efforts this season (unless you count the goaltenders).  Elite teams do return to the Stanley Cup Final.  It does happen.  Look at Pittsburgh or Detroit in recent years.

And the uneducated will reference the President’s Trophy curse - after all, three of the last four winners have been bounced in the first round.  But that is simply loser talk.  There is no curse.  Bottom seeded teams don’t win the Cup.  Ever.  Top seeded teams usually do.  There is never a guarantee, but winning in the playoffs  correlates near perfectly with winning in the regular season.  It’s fact.

In the end, what cost this team the series was ridiculously poor defensive coverage (witness the Kings’ first goal last night) and an inability to score either at even strength or with the man advantage.  And remarkably, these were not recent developments, but problems that had plagued the team for good portions of this regular season (and late in last season’s playoff drive).  They were masked by superior goaltending, from both Luongo and Schneider, and an incredibly easy divisional schedule.

But come playoff time, these are deficits that will cost you your season in short order.  And they certainly did.

There is no doubt that the moves made during the season by general manager Mike Gillis seemed to water down the offense without any measurable increase in size and toughness. 

David Booth has speed to burn and a willingness to drive to the net (i.e., he’s no Mason Raymond), but rarely completes a pass and, more importantly, has little idea what to do when he doesn’t have the puck.  While speed is the essence of the modern NHL, hockey smarts are close behind and Booth’s hockey IQ is borderline retarded.  Meanwhile, the cagey Mikael Samuelsson has four points in five games for a Florida team that is on the verge of advancing to the next round.  The curse of Dale Tallon continues.

Certainly, the jury on the Cody Hodgson trade is still out, but the decision for a Cup contending team to trade away a contributing asset for one that simply may have potential was, and remains, mind boggling.  Hodgson was the Canucks’ most efficient five-on-five scorer and held down the second unit power play, while Zack Kassian could only play his way to the press box.

It is becoming clear that Ryan Kesler’s brilliant performance versus Nashville last playoff was simply an aberration.  Over the last two playoffs, excluding the Nashville series, he has tallied two goals and eleven assists in twenty four games - remarkably poor production from your second line centre and the biggest single reason why this team struggled so mightily to score.

Up front, the Canucks’ top wingers are players with a remarkably similar skill set - speedy forwards with reasonable grit and the occasional scoring touch, but none are physically intimidating and there is a serious lack of play making ability.  Indeed, the playoff performances from the likes of Alex Burrows, David Booth, Jannik Hansen and Mason Raymond featured plenty of flash and dash, but no pucks in the net.

Overall, the Canucks’ defense had a pretty miserable season.  Ironically, the best of the bunch, Dan Hamhuis, wore the goat horns on the Kings’ winner last night (and for all you homers calling for a penalty on that play, give your head a shake).

Kevin Bieksa was predictably boneheaded at points this season (and post season), while Alex Edler suffered a serious case of the playoff yips.  By the post-season, Sami Salo looked every bit of his 37 years.  And Keith Ballard’s concussed head is still spinning and his game still reeling after inexplicably rocketing up the depth chart at playoff time.

If we’re looking for one person for which to aim the blame at, we’re looking at Mike Gillis.  In short, he seemed to overrate the depth of his defense and his moves to bolster the team’s size and toughness up front seemed to cause an identity crisis for his team down the stretch.  Gone was the team with the high tempo attacking style and in its place was a squad that was prone to running around in their own end while struggling to simply muster long distance scoring chances on an elite goalie.  The intent was to become a team that was comfortable winning 1-0 or 2-1 games.  They got the 1-0 and 2-1 games, but they didn’t win.  And the players who were to add a physical presence up front (notably Byron Bitz and Zack Kassian) rarely saw the ice.

We’ve often been critical of Alain Vigneault around here and you’d think he should get some of the blame this time around, too.  And he should, but other than the bizarre decision to play David Booth, for the first time all season, with the Sedins come playoff time, it’s hard to find specific fault with any of his coaching moves.  Though there is no question that his teams often lack killer instinct and desperate play for desperate times.  When the playoffs opened with two losses at home, the Canucks clearly weren’t as ready to play as were the Kings.  And when they ended, the same was true (witness last night’s third period and overtime).  Alain Vigneault’s elimination game record is now a poor eight wins versus twelve losses.

So there you go, plenty to ruminate on as we begin yet another summer of discontent.  Stay tuned for more.

April 19, 2012
Sedins Provide Inspiration (and other Game 4 notes)

While their teammates seemed to be desperately, but ineffectively, flailing away for much of the opening three games against the Kings, Henrik and Daniel combined for likely the most inspired effort in their careers in last night’s first playoff win.

So while Alex Edler is only working hard at keeping alive the notion that Swedes disappear come playoff time, the Sedins offered an in-your-face rebuttal last night (just ask Dustin Brown).  Henrik, fresh from a Brown hit that should have sent him concussed to the sidelines along with his brother, who amazingly returned to a series that he was not supposed to play in, were both equally hearty and arty, all at the same time.

And, of course, Cory Schneider officially stamped Roberto Luongo’s passport for an early exit from Vancouver.  And for those that are surprised by this development, you clearly haven’t been paying attention.  Schneider started most of the big games this season and was not intimidated even slightly.  His statistical results during the season placed him among the game’s elite.  And Roberto, as if often the case come playoff time, was simply decent in losing efforts in games 1 and 2.  The bigger story really should be that Schneider didn’t start these playoffs with the veteran Luongo waiting in the wings should he falter.  

With the Sedins reunited and Schneider sparkling, you might think that the Canucks have a chance to run the table against the upstart Kings.  But they need more from others for that to happen.

Speaking of, the search party continues for Ryan Kesler.  Seriously, at what point do we simply admit that he’s lost a step and will never be the same? More pointedly, Kesler was never a player with great ice vision nor strong playmaking skills.  His success was owing to his determination, speed and (last year anyway) world class shot.  The determination is still there - if you count diving, embellishing, and screening the goalie, but the lack of production seems to be attributable to the fact he simply isn’t getting the time to unload his shot - no doubt a function of declining acceleration.  This doesn’t mean he can’t contribute significantly off the scoresheet, but it highlights the bizarre decision to give away Cody Hodgson when the team is having real trouble generating decent scoring chances.

Which leads us to Jonathan Quick, the supposed hero of this series.  But really, while he is playing well, the Canucks have made him look better than that.  Peppering an elite NHL keeper with shots from never-never land is a strategy that will send the Canucks packing (and almost has).

One of the Canucks’ specific objectives heading into this season was the development of a fourth line that could be trusted to play come playoff time.  And early in the season, it looked like they had found the right combination with Maxim Lapierre centering Dale Weise and Aaron Volpatti.  Now, the fourth line features Lapierre with the one-trick pony Manny Malhotra and Zack Kassian (remember him, the goods received for the burgeoning Hodgson).  That line was simply embarrassing last night, which is why they were stapled to the bench for most of the game (and the games before that).

Why Hodgson was dealt at the deadline instead of Mason Raymond continues to be a serious Canuck conundrum.  It was the peripheral Raymond wearing the goat horns with the drive-by back-check on the Kings opening goal though it was another lazy Alex Edler pinch that started the play.

As a back-to-back President’s Trophy winner (and one that is mostly healthy once again) the Canucks are a decent bet to become one of the few teams to overcome a 3-0 series deficit.  But against the stingy Kings, they’ll need results from more than the red-haired trio that carried them to victory last night.

April 11, 2012
Canuck Playoff Musings

After the end of last regular season, we pondered the significance of the Canucks’ President Trophy winning performance.  Despite the myths about a supposed trophy curse, the fact remains that the top seeded team is always the most likely to win the Stanley Cup. 

Teams seeded either 1st or 2nd in their respective conferences have won 22 of the last 31 Stanley Cups.  And in that time, not a single team seeded less than 5th in their conference has won it all.  So on that simple basis, the Canucks could once again be considered the Stanley Cup favourite.

But make no mistake, this season is much different than the historic performance that preceded it.  In fact, the Canucks’ performance this season is likely the poorest of any league regular season champ since the league expanded to 21 teams back in 1979.

A good barometer of a team’s relative dominance is their goal differential.  And this year’s Canucks had the lowest (51) of any President’s Trophy winner ever and are one of only three regular season champion teams to post a differential of less than 60 in the modern era (post 1979).  Throw in the fact that the Canucks got to play a hefty portion of their schedule against divisional opponents, none of which qualified for the post-season, and you’ve got a result that is more than a little inflated.

In a campaign that rarely featured a 60 minute effort but was frequently rescued by stellar goaltending, the Canucks have had some trouble holding the attention of their rabid fan base, many of whom haven’t recovered from last season’s heartbreak.

While last year’s squad entered the playoffs with little concerns, this year’s team has raised some interesting questions that will be answered one way or another in the weeks to come.

Has Ryan Kesler (along with many of his mates) simply been sandbagging this season, saving himself for what he knows is coming or, after significant multiple hip injuries, has he simply lost a step, one he won’t get back?  At this point, we could be easily convinced of either - this is clearly the point on which this playoff run will most turn.

Will Daniel Sedin return soon and will he be able to contribute?  In some respects, it has been nice having Daniel out.  It has elevated the play of his brother, who once again realizes there are actually four passing options and not just one.  Further, the Canucks have looked more inspired since his loss.  With today’s news that Daniel will not return until at least the mid point of this series, the Canucks will need to continue finding ways to win low scoring affairs.

How long before Roberto Luongo’s choke chain gets yanked, leading to the inevitable playoff transition to Cory Schneider?  Like it or not, deserved or not, Roberto Luongo will not be allowed the usual amount of playoff rope to hang himself.  His play will need to be almost perfect to avoid losing the reigns to Schneider, whose performance this season was among the league’s best.  Goaltending shouldn’t be an issue with this year’s playoff performance - it’s simply a matter of whom it will come from.

This year’s Canuck version has sacrificed some scoring for additional playoff depth and toughness.  With Daniel Sedin hurt, Cody Hodgson traded and Ryan Kesler and David Booth struggling, the Canucks’ are lacking significant five-on-five scoring.  Will the contributions of Alex Burrows, Jannik Hansen, Maxim Lapierre and Chris Higgins be enough? 

In the long run, the answer is a resounding NO.  It might not even be enough to oust the low scoring Kings (who have actually outscored the Canucks in the last half of the season).

We must not forget, too, that we are in the middle of another dead puck era with a peak in parity.  And in the western conference, particularly, there are no less than six squads who could seemingly contend for Cup.

Ultimately, the perch among this year’s post is not nearly as lofty.  So while the Canucks could very well wind up in another Cup Final, it’s not near as safe a bet as last year.

March 6, 2012
The Canucks and the Big Man

With last week’s stunning acquisition of young hulking winger Zack Kassian in exchange for prized rookie Cody Hodgson, the Canucks are about to add another chapter to a long running story in Vancouver: the quest for the perfect power forward. 

This story has its beginning, of course, with Cam Neely, who would become the prototype for the very term.  Except the Canucks didn’t know it.  And gave him away for Barry Pederson, a playmaking centre who had been a BC junior hockey star and twice a 100 point scorer for the Boston Bruins. Though at the time of the 1986 trade, he had the use of roughly one arm and was a shadow of his former self - though still good enough to lead the pitiful Canucks in scoring.  Meanwhile, Neely became the NHL’s definitive power forward and hockey hall of famer despite a career that was tragically cut short by injury.

Since that devastating and memorable loss, Vancouver has had more misses than hits to replace what Neely was never able to provide in Vancouver, but did so effectively in Boston.

Indeed, since the 1983 draft that produced Neely, the Canucks have burned six first round picks on big men up front.  There was one hit, Trevor Linden.  And several misses - Rob Murphy, Shawn Antoski, Alek Stojanov and the most lamentable Libor Polasek.  And there was Jim Sandlak, who seemed to have the game, but just not the gumption on most nights. 

The Canucks, since the Neely disaster, have actually had better success trading away big men than keeping them.  Linden became Todd Bertuzzi - who, while a Canuck, was the best power forward in the game.  Bertuzzi, the power gone from his game after the Steve Moore incident, became Roberto Luongo.  Stojanov, of course, became Markus Naslund.  And even Sandlak was good enough for Murray Craven, a key player on the 1994 Final team.

And when the Canucks weren’t drafting big men, they were passing on some they rightly should have nabbed.  And while second-guessing draft picks is a ridiculously simple and unfair game, there are a few instances that are notable in their sheer idiocy. Two picks after the Canucks selected J.J. Daigneault, who approached the 1984 draft table on crutches, Calgary selected Gary Roberts.  And of course, failing to nab local boy Milan Lucic, who was playing in their own backyard for the WHL Vancouver Giants, before the Bruins got him in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft is a slight that will not be forgotten by many. 

In Canuck lore, the broad shoulders of Trevor Linden almost carried the team to its first Stanley Cup.  And the dominant play of Todd Bertuzzi helped return the Canucks to an elite team before a tragic ending.  And, of course, the loss to Boston in last year’s Final has been blamed, by many, on a lack of toughness on the top lines.

So while the quest for the perfect big man continues with the acquisition of Kassian, none of this legacy should matter.  We doubt he’s a Canuck historian.  But it will likely matter to the rabid fan base, who have too much misery in memory.

When news of the trade first broke, it seemed to catch most by surprise - even the supposed hockey insiders - which causes one to worry if the Canucks had done their best to auction Hodgson to the highest bidder.  But it would seem given the Canucks’ now apparent long running drama with the Hodgson camp, that they likely had this deal in the works for quite some time and had their sights particularly set upon Kassian.  So while this trade may be evaluated on the longer term performances of both players, the trade of a blue chip asset in Hodgson only increases the pressure on Kassian to contribute now.

And so it goes.  Another big man in Vancouver.  With pressure to fulfill a prophecy often promised, but rarely fulfilled.